UK food security: findings he holds

Findings James holds, as revised against evidence (each revision dated, with the reason; details and URLs in the 2026-10-25 section below):

• UK food self-sufficiency: around 60% for the past decade, 65% in 2024, 77% for foods that can be grown in the UK (Defra, via the essay; unchecked). Much lower for fresh produce: vegetables 53%, fruit about 16%. Revised 2026-10-25: was "about 60%".
• Functional sovereign nitrogen capacity effectively zero since the CF Fertilisers closures of 2022–23. Open: the National Preparedness Commission reports 371,000 t of UK fertiliser production in 2019–21; the reference check will establish whether any nitrogen is still made.
• Near-total import dependence on phosphate (no UK phosphate rock) and on standard potash (Boulby stopped potassium-chloride mining in 2018 as uneconomic). The UK still mines potassium as polyhalite at Boulby, and Woodsmith awaits a 2028 decision. Revised 2026-10-25: was "near-total import dependence on phosphate and potash"; the potassium half was too strong.
• ~~UK near the bottom of the G20 on food-system resilience to a Hormuz-type shock.~~ Unverified as of 2026-10-25: no source found, and it is not in the essay. Kept struck through until a source turns up or the claim is dropped.
• Hormuz crisis (from 28 Feb 2026) watched as a live stress-test.
• Output so far: ~6,000-word essay on UK food security, seven editorial passes.

Evidentiary standard: primary or peer-reviewed sources only, precise figures, no Wikipedia.

Live: re-check with James before relying on this.

Split from british-political-economy. Provenance: James, in conversation with Claude, Sept–Oct 2026 (unverified).

Related: british-political-economy, civilizational-transition, macro-view

Part of thread: thread-transition

Checked against the essay and the web (2026-10-25)

The essay itself is now in the wiki: island-that-forgot-references lists all 61 footnotes, each awaiting a URL and a verdict. Figures below are as the essay states them; none is checked against its source yet unless a URL is given.

• Self-sufficiency. Essay: production-to-supply ratio "stabilised in the most recent decade at around 60%", down from over 80% in the 1980s; 65% for all food and 77% for indigenous-type food in 2024 (Defra, fn 1-3). Sharper than "about 60%".
• Fresh produce. Essay: fresh vegetables 53%, lowest since records began in 1988 (NFU, fn 14); fruit about 16% (Defra Food Security Report 2021, fn 15).
• Nitrogen. Essay: "There are no longer any fertiliser producers in the UK" (POSTnote 748, fn 4/9). Corroborated in part: CF Industries closed Ince (2022) and Billingham (2023) (Nottingham policy brief, https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/Science/Documents/Food-Systems-Institute/Food-Policy/Treating-fertiliser-as-strategic-infrastructure-Dilan-Boora.pdf , search text, 2026-10-25). But the National Preparedness Commission says the UK produced 371,000 t of fertiliser in 2019-21 against 1,287,000 t imported, so "no producers" may be too strong for fertiliser as a whole (https://nationalpreparednesscommission.uk/publications/the-strategic-geography-of-fertilisers-implications-for-uk-preparedness/ , search text, 2026-10-25). Needs checking at fn 4.
• Phosphate: holds (not in the essay; sourced 2026-10-25). The UK has no phosphate rock reserves and relies on imported mineral phosphate (Cooper & Carliell-Marquet 2013, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344913000578); "no meaningful reserves of phosphate or potash" (NPC, Lang & So, April 2026, URL above). Both search text. Disposition: stated, two sources.
• Potash: holds for standard potash, not for potassium. ICL Boulby stopped potassium-chloride production in mid-2018 because "reserves of economically-accessible potash continue to decline" (https://icl-uk.uk/announcement-staff-january-2018); workings had reached ~15 km from the shafts at 800-1,350 m and rising costs made it "uneconomical" (CRU, https://prnewswire.com/news-releases/cru-icl-bets-on-polyhalite-as-uk-potash-production-finally-ends-300661053.html). Boulby still mines polyhalite (a potassium-bearing fertiliser) and exports it (https://2020.icl-group-sustainability.com/reports/icl-uk-uk). Woodsmith, on the world's largest polyhalite deposit, awaits a final investment decision "from 2028"; Mitsubishi holds 40% (https://uk.angloamerican.com/media/press-releases/2026/investment-mitsubishi). All search text, 2026-10-25. So "imports all three macronutrients" overstates the potassium case. Note the link to macro-view: Boulby potash closed as uneconomic, not exhausted.
• "Near the bottom of the G20 on resilience to a Hormuz-type shock": unverified. Not in the essay. Nearest candidate is the Economist Impact / Cargill Resilient Food Systems Index (60 countries; https://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/news/food-resilience-index-cargill-trade.html , search text); UK rank not yet seen. Origin of the phrase unknown.
• Hormuz. Not in the essay. Lang & So (NPC, April 2026) and Oxford (https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2026-05-13-expert-comment-hormuz-exposes-the-fragility-of-the-uks-food-system-but-price-shocks) treat it as the live test; the Oxford piece argues shocks alone do not transform food systems.

Weak footnotes to replace with primaries: fn 40, 42, 47 (CooksInfo, The History Press, an unattributed "Feeding Britain in the Second World War") and fn 8/46/60 (The Week). Primaries named in the essay: National Archives MAF records (fn 41), Zweiniger-Bargielowska 2000 (fn 44-45), the National Preparedness Commission (behind fn 8).