DHL Globalization Tracker, Oct 2026 (formerly Global Connectedness Tracker)

Disposition: stated (one source family: DHL/NYU Stern, Altman & Bastian). Provenance: read from press-release and PDF text in search results, 2026-10-11 (page not fetched in full).

What: periodic measure of trade, capital, information and people flows (20-30M data points). Why it matters: the most direct test of the deglobalisation leg of macro-view.

• Oct 2026 release: global goods trade grew faster in H1 2026 than in any half-year of the past 15 years, the Covid rebound aside. AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods-trade growth in 2025 and 76% in Q1 2026 (WTO/OECD analysis, as quoted). The Hormuz closure's effect was concentrated: Saudi trade value -37%, UAE -7%, Jan-May 2026 y/y. The US is 13% of world imports, and about half of US imports were tariff-exempt as of Aug 2026. It projects 3.4%/yr goods-trade growth to 2029. https://prnewswire.com/news-releases/tech-beats-tariffs-global-trade-growth-accelerates-and-globalization-sets-new-record-302900608.html (read 2026-10-11)
• Mar 2025 tracker PDF: depth index 25%, a record set in 2022. Average trade distance hit a record 4,980 km and the within-region share a record low of 52%. "Deglobalization remains a risk, not a current reality." https://www.dhl.com/content/dam/dhl/global/microsites/dhl-nyu/pdf/dhl-global-connectedness-tracker-mar-2025.pdf (read 2026-10-11)
• Caveat: commissioned by a logistics firm that benefits when trade looks healthy. Counterweight on composition: unctad-wir-2026.

Backlinks: macro-view, trail-2026-10-11-b